In the last post, I talked about what the new format may look like and how it may revolve in the coming months.  One thing that I think is a pretty safe bet is that control is back and if a deck like Cruel sits on top, it will send ripples through the metagame changing everything from what archetypes look like to which are even viable.  Strong control decks have a way of shifting metagames around them unlike any mid-range and aggro deck (barring a few like Affinity).  Worldwake may have not had many power rares, but it had key pieces to the control puzzle.  The one thing you can count on is that if a top tier control deck is viable, someone will find it.  It’s no secret top players tend to gravitate towards this style of the deck.  With the best magic minds working on the best 75 configurations, it’s likely that a great list will eventually emerge.

We really haven’t seen a dominate control deck since Cruel from Lorwyn.  That all may change and in doing so, old favorites could become much more popular once again.  The first of which is our old friend, the baddest deer in the woods:

“Hey, that’s a hell of an elk.”

As far as control goes, Stag is both good and bad.  It’s good in the sense that it can’t be counter by cards like Essence Scatter, has multiple one mana enablers that allow it to be played on Turn 2 for fast damage, and (most importantly) it attacks right through Calcite Snappers and Wall of Denials to dome the player or make life difficult for planeswalkers (of the Jace variety).  However, Lightning Bolt is a staple four-of and Earthquake is also present.  Some lists will also be playing some number (one or two) of Burst Lightning.  Add to that UWR Control having Ajani and Path to Exile and it just isn’t quite the force it one was.  The reason I mentioned this though is that:

1. People will still play it and in a number resembling four – whether it is actually that effective or not – and it will see maindeck play as well.  Be aware.
2. In many decks, it might not be a powerhouse hoser but will still be better than other options.  For example, this coupled with Leatherback Baloth gives MonoG some strong Turn 2 plays against control.  In Jund, this is just better than dead removal and is more easily seen in multiples.
3. If control were on top, Vampires (as popular as they have been) will be a legitimate, viable deck to play since it has pretty solid matchups while packing Hexmage, Bloodghast, Gatekeeper (bye Snapper/Wall), Bloodwitch, Duress, Mind Sludge, etc.  It even has access to some fringe tech like Pithing Needle or Underworld Dreams (which turns Jace’s brainstorm ability into free damage and makes Treasure Hunt a liability) .  Great Sable Stag should be more comfortable in this sort of metagame with Control, Vampires, and Jund.

The second card to mention is a doozy.  I had completely forgotten about it, but now am actively seeking out the best answers to it as well as updating lists that can support it.  That card is:

Anathemancer was a serious problem for control players and single-handedly ended many games.  With the the additional manlands and cards like Halimar Depths, it looks like Anathemancer will be approaching the power level of past self.  Decks like Jund will certainly be opening up sideboard slots once again.  New control decks months from now must and will have a plan to deal with this guy.  It may be by playing more basics.  Perhaps they just run anti-hoser cards like Pithing Needle.  I’m not sure what’s best at this time, but you can believe I’ve free up a few sideboards slots in the Cruel sideboard for him.  Hey, Grixis has to plan for the control mirrors, too.

THE END OF RED?

Since the day Kor Firewalker was spoiled, people have decried it as the end of red.  But is it really?  Without a doubt, red did not get that much from Worldwake.  But this isn’t the first hoser that red has faced and it’s not the first time people have said that a card would kill an archetype.  Somehow the little color that could finds a way.  It may be just by winning the game too quickly for the hoser to be drawn or to matter.  It may be due to splashing a second color that deals with the card.  Finally, it may be by some anti-hoser tech like Ghostfire.  The card of interest in this post falls into that last category and is some of the slickest anti-hoser tech I’ve seen to date.  Rather than just answer the Kor Firewalker, it actually turns the bonus ability against the player controlling the Firewalker.  You might have forgotten about this card:

In extended, a great engine with this and Grove of the Burnwillows is used to great effect (including winning the extended Pro Tour) which allows the player to endlessly recur Punishing Fire to burn away opponents creatures.  It’s very much Cursed Scroll that can be used multiple times in a turn.  Well, when the Kor Firewalker player uses the gain life ability, it creates the same engine in Standard.  For every one life gained, the red player can recur Punishing Fire and send it to the dome or kill off other creatures.  Since Fire is also a red spell, Firewalker triggers again and if they choose to gain the life, Punishing Fire can be recurred once again.  Fortunately for the Firewalker controller, it’s a may ability and they can choose to not gain the life.  But isn’t the life gain the whole reason people are so estatic about this card?  I don’t remember so much hype when Vedalken Outlander was released which is effectively what this card is without the life-gaining ability.  Just a 2/2 Pro-Red.  It’s still good, but facing a Punishing Fire, isn’t quite the “end of red” card it once was.

Cruel Control v1.0

4 Calcite Snapper
1 Sphinx of Jwar Isle

4 Lightning Bolt
3 Terminate
2 Into the Roil
3 Essence Scatter
2 Negate
4 Treasure Hunt
2 Double Negative
4 Jace, the Mindsculptor
2 Earthquake
3 Cruel Ultimatum

4 Crumbling Necropolis
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Dragonskull Summit
4 Drowned Catacombs
2 Creeping Tar Pits
3 Island
3 Swamp
2 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Malakir Bloodwhich
2 Vampire Nighthawk
4 Flashfreeze
1 Negate
2 Swerve
2 Duress
1 Mind Shatter

UWR Control v1.0

4 Wall of Denial
2 Calcite Snapper
2 Sphinx of Jwar Isle

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Path to Exile
4 Treasure Hunt
3 Essence Scatter
2 Negate
2 Double Negative
3 Ajani Vengeant
4 Jace the Mind Sculptor
2 Earthquake

4 Halimar Depths
4 Arid Mesa
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Celestial Colonnade
1 Island
2 Mountain
3 Plains

Sideboard

4 Baneslayer Angel
2 Negate
2 Mind Control
3 Luminarch Ascension
4 Spreading Seas

The way control will look completely depends on how the new format shapes up over the next few months.  If I had to guess, I’d say Cruel control will definitely gain in popularity.  Vampires has a great match against UWr and an ok to good match against the old Grixis so that deck will probably see greater play as well (although the current Vampires list is far too outdated to deal with new Cruel and will need to change).  Due to a bad Vampires and Grixis matchup, UWr will probably see less play, although a new version could come out that addresses these two decks better than the currently popular anti-Jund UWr control.   Of course,  decks will also change to adapt to the new format (such as Putrid Leech becoming a staple in Jund again, Mind Sludge being main in Vampires, less dead removal in all decks, etc) and Cruel itself would adapt be better in the control mirrors.

Of course, this all depends on people actually being able to afford Jaces.  Hypothetically let’s assume  Cruel Control were to become the new “best” deck.  As it sits on top, it will become more popular.  As its popularity increases, so does demand for Jace (which is likely going to be the centerpiece of the deck).  As Jace’s demand increases, so does its value.   At some point, its value will be high enough that people simply aren’t going to be able to afford them and will choose to play something else.  This is in similar fashion to Baneslayer Angel, although Jace has potential to be worth more than Baneslayers at their peak.  While it could just be complete hype with no tournaments backing it up, I’ve heard numbers from pros ranging for $60 to as high as $100 each.  Due to this and the high skill factor while playing the deck, it would seem that the deck has a self-imposed restriction on how popular it can actually be.  I’d expect many people to look at adapting decks to beat it rather than shell out for new Jaces.

This is where the ebb and flow of formats happen.  Perhaps Jund gains in popularity again because people already have the cards and the it does well vs Grixis and Vampires.  That means a deck like UWr becomes very popular since it has a good matchup against Jund, which means Vampires and Grixis become popular afterward because they have great UWr matchups.  Cycle complete.

What really ends up happening is hard to predict because main decks will adapt to deal with what is most popular at the time, whether that’s Grixis, Vampires, Jund,  etc.  As they do, other decks which aren’t the focus of attention get better as people are more prepared for the most played decks and less prepared for them.  It could lead to holes in the meta where a certain deck (like Boros, Vampires, UWr etc) can shine until the metagame adapts again.  Hopefully, new Standard will be this Rock/Paper/Scissors format where everything is kept in balance and ebbs and flows as new decks spend a short time on top.  This is where players with a sharp eye on what’s happening week to week are at an advantage as they can predict trends and adapt one step quicker than everyone else.

Here’s and example in practice:   Going into the SCG 5k in LA, LSV knew the field was going to be full of Jund.  No surprise there.  So he played UWr control which had an amazing matchup versus Jund.  He won.  But that’s not the example.  After he won, he knew that UWr would be popular.  Not only that, but he also knew if UWr were popular then players would look for a deck that has a great UWr matchup.  Vampires wasn’t seeing much play and not putting up results at the time, but it has a great UWr matchup so LSV predicted it would become popular as well.  He switched to Grixis at this point in order to beat Vamps and UWr before they had actually even become popular.  How accurate was he?  The following SCG 5k was won by Vampires – not a bad prediction about a deck that hadn’t really won anything lately.  LSV had positioned himself one step ahead of the rest of the metagame at every point.

Sometimes it isn’t good enough to play the best deck.  Sometimes it isn’t good enough to play the deck that beats the best deck.  Sometimes you have to make the leap and play the deck that beats the deck that beats the best deck.  And sometimes it’s just better to play the best deck.  Those who are able to make the this choice correctly tend to win tournaments.

Notes:

Sunspring – is for decks with direct damage Needle – is for Ob Nix, Ajani, Sorin, Hexmage, Chandra, Extractor, Siege-Gang…things that are problems, don’t board in vs things like Reliquary, Elspeth, Garruk, etc.

Baneslayer – is for most decks except a couple, hoping they board out removal or keep in dead cards if they expect Banes.  Keep them guessing.  Probably best just to keep them in the whole time vs bad players.

Negate – For when flashfreeze is dead (Control, Unearth, Vamps, Bant, etc)

Tezzeret – vs Control and when you need to see multiple Needles (Unearth, Planeswalker Control) or just as an extra win condition and Mine tutor if you have a dead card main.

General SB’ing

Jund

-3 Day -1 Needle -1 Archive Trap +1Sunspring,  +4 Barnslayer Angel

Keep needle in vs Siege-Gang versions and board out a time warp instead.  Sunspring comes in vs any deck with heavy direct damage (including Vamps).  Don’t forget to Safe Passage the Blightning pre-combat.  Also, don’t take direct damage (blightning, bolt, etc) post-combat if you Passage’d that turn (easy to forget this).  Do not double up on the same card drawer to get blown out by Pulse.  Slowroll the Mine if you can protect it with a Flashfreeze.

Vampires

+1 Tezzeret,  +1 Sunspring, +3 Negate – 4 Flashfreeze, -1 Safe Passage

Needle on Hexmage.  Use Sunspring to keep you out of Bloodwitch range.  Negate vs Sorin & Mind Sludge.  If they have Sorin, consider bringing in a 2nd Needle and cutting an Archive Trap.

Boros/MonoRed

-1 Time Warp, -1 Font, -1 Needle, -1 Archive Trap, -2 Jace, -1 Flashfreeze+2 Wall of Denial +1Sunspring, +4 Barnslayer Angel

Watch out for Manabarbs (or Ajani) and save a flashfreeze for it since you can’t remove it once it is in play.

GWx +4 Barnslayer Angel, -2 Sunspring, -1 Needle, -1 Archive Trap

Bring in the Negates vs Bant to deal with Bant Charm and their Negates.  Don’t autolose to getting your fog countered or needlessly losing Mines/Fonts/Jaces.  Probably better played with a control mindset rather than a Turbomill one.

Vs GWr (NayaLightsaber) or GW with Qasali Pridemage

+4 Barnslayer Angel, +1 Tezzeret, -1 Archive Trap, -2 Sunspring -1 Time Warp, -1 Safe Passage

Save Flashfreeze for Ajani in Naya if able.

Eldrazi Green Deck sucks.  No sideboarding needed.  Flashfreeze is 1U Counter target spell – look for Acidic Slime to come in game 2 vs you.

-1 Pithing Needle, +1 Barnslayer?

MostControl Decks

+3 Negate, +1 Needle, +1 Tezzeret, +2 Wall, +4 Baneslayer -4 Safe Passage, -1 Angelsong, -2 Sunspring, -4 Flashfreeze

You’ll have to be very flexible here depending on the control since they’re all different.  You may leave a flashfreeze in or two vs RWU vs Ajani/Earthquake/Bolt for example.  Or cut the needles vs Esper.  Walls and Days are there vs Sphinx/Baneslayer since you’re boarding out fogs.

Unearth -4 Safe Passage, -4 Flashfreeze, +1 Tezzeret, +1 Relic of Progenitus, +1 Pithing Needle, +2 Quest for the Ancient Secrets, +3 Negate

Negate for Grim Discovery. Make sure to remove a Hedron Crab asap, even if you have to spend a Wrath on it.  Needle for Extractor Demon and Leviathan (you can’t needle a Crypt).  Do not Archive Trap early, use it to finish or just before using Relic.  This should give you the best chance of stopping them from milling you before you can mill them or win with Tezzeret.  If for whatever reason they seem unaware they should mill you and continue to try to attack instead, you can consider keeping in a couple Safe Passages.

Mirror +2 Quest for the Ancient Secrets, +1 Tezzeret, +1 Relic of Progenitus, +1 Needle, +3 Negate, +4 Baneslayer Angel, +1 Wall of Denial -4 Flashfreeze, -4 Safe Passage, -2 Sunspring Expedition, -3 Day of Judgement

Quest will be great for preventing yourself from being decked and to deal with things like Telemin Performance and Archive Trap.  Relic is to counter their Quest if they have it and it cycles at worst.  The Needles are to deal with an unanswered Jace, an opponents Relic, or their Quest.  Of course it only matters if denying them those cards at that time is more important than being able to play them yourself (like if you’re about to deck them but they just played a quest, or if they’re about to Ultimate Jace, or if you have a Quest active and you know they have Relic in their deck, you can Needle Relic to prevent them from stopping your Quest, and so on).  Wall is just there because it’s better than Sunspring or Safe if they bring in Baneslayers, and can’t be countered like a Day can.  A 2nd wall can be brought in if they do and it actually matters.  You may want to save an Angelsong to deal with an unanswered Tezzerets Ultimate.  Finally, Baneslayers are there because they are better than Safe/Wrath/Sunspring as they win the game, even though they probably won’t.  You never know, though.

Many people are complaining about how stagnant the current Standard format is, with much of the resentment aimed at Jund. And while Jund is certainly very good and requires a bit more thought to beat, there are many undiscovered gems in Standard. We’re going to look at 3 major ways you can break out of this format and possibly discover The Next Best Thing as you cruise your way through a field of Jund and Boros.

Don’t play with Jund (so much)

Jund is the not-so-big-bad boogeyman of the format. It’s no coincidence that it is also the most tested and tuned deck due to the Block Pro Tour. It’s certainly a safe pick, but playing Jund is going to lead to some high variance records because you’re going to play the mirror so often, as well as up-and-coming decks aimed squarely at beating Jund with cards like maindeck White Knights, Vedalken Outlanders, Celestial Purges, and even Devout Lightcasters as seen in this UW deck that is gaining popularity on MTGO:

UW “Solution”

bolov0 (3rd Place)

Standard Premier #664856 on 11/07/2009

The other major reason to not play Jund if you want to break out some incredible results is because if you’re spending so much of your time with a hot-and-cold deck like Jund, you’re not spending time innovating, discovering, and tuning other decks. If you’re resolved to just get fed a fish rather than learning to fish, feel free to copy decks others have innovated, but you will often not get the same level of reward that they did for breaking the deck out. It’s certainly the safe play, just don’t expect stand out in a sea of mirrors. The way to stand out, to have a shot at incredible results, is to take a little risk and try to innovate. Take a look at Kelly Reid’s Boros Bushwhacker for example. Both names have gotten quite popular as of late and it’s because Kelly chose to try to build something new and was successful. If you fail, you can always sleeve up an established deck last minute.

Revisit big, powerful, unused spells

There are a lot of more expensive, yet strong cards from Shards of Alara and M10 that have seen little real tournament play and are relegated to the crap rare box. Think cards like Mind Spring, Mind Shatter, Violent Ultimatum, etc. Why aren’t they being played? For most, the reason is that they are just too slow, aren’t good enough for the cost, too easily answered to be played, and so on. But there are some that could be quite strong and playable that may just be getting overlooked now, considered to still be unplayable junk. Why would that have changed?

Faeries.

You have to remember that Faeries was one of the most played decks as well as the dominant deck of the format while Shards has been legal. Faeries played 12-16 maindeck counterspells, including the premier counter, Cryptic Command. Many big spells not named Cruel Ultimatum were just ineffective against that deck. Many other decks, such as Cruel and Merfolk, played Cryptic as well as other cheap counters like Broken Ambitions. Many of the top decks had cheaper, maindeck answers to those expensive spells.

Other popular decks in the format were very fast aggro decks like Jund, BR Blightning, and Kithkin. Most big spells, with the exception of Cruel, just didn’t have a chance and quietly faded from the minds of many and relegated to junk by the rest.

Things have drastically changed.

There are no great counters in the new, post-Lorwyn format. There are a few serviceable ones like Negate, but those aren’t heavily played because Islands are not currently widely played. This means when you cast a spell, it usually resolves. This is a huge change from the last Standard format. Things aren’t nearly so harsh for the top-heavy cards since they get to actually impact the game.

Also, this format really isn’t that fast right now. By far and away the most played deck is Jund, and it is (barring a nut draw) a bit sluggish. There is only one popular aggro deck, Boros Bushwhacker, and things dry up quickly after that. Mono-Red is ok, but doesn’t see nearly as much play. This is good for bigger spells in two ways:

1) There are overall fewer aggressive decks in the format since there is only one tier one choice right now. Those that don’t like Boros Bushwhacker do not have other top aggro decks to choose instead. Many are going to instead play slower decks like Vampires, Jund, Elves, GW, Naya, WW etc.

2) With only one top tier aggro deck that fast, it’s much easier to plan appropriately. If there were more great aggro decks, the variety would make answering every angle of attack much more difficult. With just Boros as the premier, popular aggro deck, opposing decks can focus more maindeck and sideboard slots to beating it rather than having their focus divided among many.

What I’m trying to point out is that there may be some unloved cards in Shards in M10 that have been completely overlooked due to their irrelevance in the old, drastically different format. To innovate, you need to have an open mind to discover things that many others have missed. Keep an eye out for cards you’ve forgotten about (or even better, browse Gatherer), and rather than writing it off because no one plays it, ask yourself “Why?” it’s not being played right now. The old answers of “Faeries” or “Cryptic Command” or “too much aggro” no longer apply.

Get Greedy

This format reminds me somewhat of the Onslaught Block Pro Tour in Venice. There were few to no counters and the only major aggro deck was Goblins. What were the other top decks? The greediest. Decks that were filled with big spells like Akroma, Silvos, Exalted Angel, Rorix, Akroma’s Vengeance and so on. Games were one bomb after the other. This format is a bit different due to the number of efficient removal, but the speed and lack of heavily played counterspells are somewhat similar. Playing the most powerful spells in a new format against a field of new and untuned decks is often going to be correct. I’m sure Jund lends at least part of its current success to that. Decks just aren’t the lean, finely tuned, efficient machines they will be a few months from now; now is the time that you can get away with being greedy. Just check out the deck former Player of the Year and Pro Tour Champion Shota Yasooka was playing in a recent Premier Event on Magic Online. I don’t have the exact list yet, but you will get the idea.

yaya3 (6th Place)

He ended up losing to the the UW deck in the Top 8 that he had beaten earlier in the swiss. I know that he beat 1 or 2 Jund and a Boros Bushwhacker along the way. It’s just a greedier version of Jund, adding in Baneslayer Angels and Ajani Vengeant, as well as Day of Judgement in the sideboard. The choice of all the trilands and even Rupture Spires, shows that Shota doesn’t feel the format is too fast to need to trade power for speed.

Summary

Just get in there and test new things out. Go back through the Shards Block and M10 spoiler for cards you may have overlooked and ask yourself if they are really still unplayable. You may discover a sleeper in the new format. We’re already seeing some previous unplayed cards getting more attention such as Chandra Nalaar, Mind Spring, and Martial Coup. Get greedier with some of your decks. Push for power, especially with the midrange decks like Jund or decks that have a hard time competing with Jund. You can easily focus the sideboard and some maindeck slots on shoring up the matchups vs fast decks like Boros Bushwhacker since there are so few.

Finally, take a look at Pro Tour Honolulu. The block format was defined by Jund. Sound familiar? Other decks had to adapt or fail. Many Jund decks just got greedier to win the mirror. You’ll find some great ideas in lists that resulted from countless matches against very similar Jund decks to the ones found in Standard.

Good Luck.
D

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